History With the ebb of American railway construction in the past 12 years, the 13th economic crisis in the world economic history has been triggered.
A few years before the economic crisis, the United States built a parallel railway twice as much as it actually needed, and vicious competition cut down the transportation, which made the railway operation unable to make ends meet. Bank investors sold railway stocks and bonds in succession. In 13 years, the price of American railway stocks fell in London market, and the railway investment suddenly shrank in 12 years. In 13 years, the locomotive production dropped from 222 sets to 65%, the coal production dropped by 75%, the pig iron production dropped by 125%, the cotton consumption decreased by 154%, and the steel production also decreased by 17%, while the import decreased by 2
Obviously, this is another economic crisis caused by overproduction, which can not but be affected, because the American market is already the second largest export market for industrial raw silk.
In fact, the export of raw silk has slipped this year. Zhu Jinglun knows that there will be a long economic recession in the winter.
This time, Zhu Jinglun decided to take administrative measures to support the economy through the next few years.
The large-scale industrial production of the first late-developing country is far from surplus. The bulk industrial steel and cotton cloth are net importers. The annual import of cotton textiles in the sea has reached 32 million, and the import of cotton textiles in Kowloon has exceeded 22 million. If tax protection can effectively resist the dumping of British and American textiles, a huge market will be reserved for big capitalists, and the cotton textile industry will continue to develop.
Second, continue to promote railway construction. The construction of large railways has not formed a speculative frenzy like that in the United States, let alone parallel railways. Even the first railway network has not yet been formed. However, the construction of railways can continue to create a huge steel market and machinery equipment market, and the steel and machinery industries will continue to develop.
There are two pillar industries, iron and steel machinery and cotton textile industry, which continue to develop. The industries that are greatly affected may be tea and raw silk, which are too dependent on the international market.
If the development speed of steel and textile industry can make up for the loss of tea and raw silk, the economic crisis will not have a big impact. The capitalist economic crisis is mainly caused by speculation, and the various industrial industries are far from surplus. It was not until 19 years ago that the first capitalist economic crisis broke out. Now the level of industrialization is obviously not as high as 19 years ago, but the market is more important than 19 years ago. This economic crisis will not be so bad.
Zhu Jinglun’s instructions made the technocrats in the government panic unanimously. In this era, westerners often have one way to deal with the economic crisis, that is, to adopt deflation. The main purpose of the government to save money is to maintain the credibility of the currency in the economic crisis. Because every economic crisis is accompanied by financial panic, banks are run on and big banks are always bankrupt.
Zhu Jinglun’s method is to do the opposite, adopt loose monetary policy and continue to stimulate economic and technical bureaucrats, fearing that this will cause another collapse of the big currency, so they advise that they do not want the government to adopt administrative means to expand investment.
This is another bureaucratic group, so the behavior is once again against the emperor. The bureaucrats will think more and more independently, and Zhu Jinglun found that they have firmly controlled the big politics and really matured.
In the past, they solved the interference of the military regiment in the government and quietly divided and disintegrated the forces of the young generation.
Section six hundred and seventy-five Mature bureaucracy
Since the completion of the military reform, the large and young military regiments have formed the characteristics of military regiments in other modern countries in the world. They are radical and adventurous. In 173, Wen Yuan, on behalf of the young military officers, agreed that the big army could easily defeat the French army. At that time, they strongly advocated the first world war in Vietnam.
Later, the big government reached an agreement with France to withdraw its troops entering Vietnam.
By the time of the Ryukyu incident against the Japanese soldiers, it was difficult for the military regiment to suppress them. General Zhu Jinglun handed them over to the Ministry of War, but the Ministry of War tried to control a self-contained military regiment for a while. Before the attack, a large number of officers petitioned the emperor to fight against Japan
Obviously, the military regiment has a strong tendency to rely on the emperor for greater freedom of movement.
Zhu Jinglun, on the other hand, opposed this tendency. He insisted on not bypassing the Ministry of War and having contact with the army.
This gave the Ministry of War a lot of exercise.
After the Ryukyu incident, the mobilized army was a huge unstable factor, and the Ministry of War weakened the military regiment by means of differentiation and disintegration.
First of all, they asked Wen Yuan to stay in Japan after the withdrawal of troops in the Japanese War, and gave Wen Yuan an order to investigate the Japanese military. Wen Yuan was curious about the Japanese military forces because he might be touched by some Bushido Japanese troops in the war, so he accepted the order of the Ministry of War.
After Wen Yuan, the flag figure of the young generation, accepted it, the civil servants of the Ministry of War were transferred one by one. Chen Jishi, the general commander of the Jiangxi Military Region of the young generation, was sent to Russia to investigate Russian military forces and potential threats. Zhang Shan was transferred to France to study the recovery of French military forces after the Franco-Prussian War and the future Vietnamese policy of France.
Among the four flag figures of the young generation, Deng Shicai of the Youjian Military Region stayed in China to continue to preside over the military rehabilitation.
Obviously, this Deng Shicai was recognized by the Ministry of War civilian. Zhu Jinglun paid a little attention to it and found that this Deng Shicai was really different. He was the only senior officer who did not jointly petition at that time. Obviously, his steady style was recognized by the Ministry of War.
In addition to the three flags being transferred, the Ministry of War also sent military attaché s to the United States, Germany, Austria-Hungary and even some small countries in South America. A large number of middle and high-ranking military attaché s with European qualifications were transferred, which was almost a military coup. At the same time, a large number of officers who came out of big military schools took up their posts.
Sadly, the Ministry of War purged the forces of the younger generation in the army, and in the process, except for Wen Yi, Chen Jishi and others struggled to bring things to Zhu Jinglun, who supported the Ministry of War and decided to appease them.
Later, Deng Shicai actively cooperated with the Ministry of War to successfully complete the demobilization of the army, and the large military machine turned into a peaceful state again.
Solving the situation of the military corps shows that the civil service corps not only has independent ideology, but also has honed mature political means
Now they frequently resist the emperor’s interference, which is no longer the one who obeyed the emperor and followed the body of public officials in the past, and has really formed a political force.
This is a sign that politics is maturing. Zhu Jinglun has two choices. The first is to take a confrontational attitude and compete with bureaucrats for power, so that big politics will fall into continuous turmoil. The second is to take a tacit and concession attitude to let bureaucrats really manage the country.
Zhu Jinglun chose the second one, but he still wants to win one for the government’s stimulus phalanx during the economic crisis.
I had a discussion with Chen Zhiting and other officials, telling everyone that the economic crisis is beginning to appear, and it is likely that the world crisis will break out next year, and measures must be taken to protect large industries.
They all recognize high taxes, but they can only let the government increase investment, even if it is a large-scale debt, which is difficult for them to accept. They are worried that it will destroy the financial body and the loss will outweigh the gain. The government should save money and stabilize the market owners.
Zhu jinglun tried to instill ideas into them, but they refused to accept repeated persuasion to change his mind.
Zhu Jinglun knows that they can’t talk about them anymore. They have got rid of their superstition about the emperor Britain and SHEN WOO. Even if Zhu Jinglun forcibly pushes them to refuse, his heart will not actively cooperate, and it will be like the second railway company, and the whole big economy will be damaged in the end.
Since the law allows them to accept from their hearts that they will fight against the bureaucracy again, it is better to agree with them so as to safeguard the prestige of the civilian government
However, Zhu Jinglun does not intend to give up active action in the economic crisis. The emperor can come forward without the government. Zhu Jinglun is still worth a few dollars.
He successfully said that Chen Zhiting and others will soon implement a policy to put the unified management department of all trading ports under the direct control of six departments.
Except for a few ports released in the Qing Dynasty, such as Chaozhou and Guangzhou, many other ports were actively released, including more than a dozen ports such as Humen Xiangshan Qianshanzhai Shunde Nansha Panyu Huangpu Nanhai Foshan Zhaoqing Fu Gaoyao Port Xinhui Port Area and so on.
Relying on seaports and river ports, these ports have formed a modern city with a certain scale, but the level of urban construction is uneven. Kowloon Port has established all western urban infrastructure, newspapers, waterways, urban roads and public transportation, but Gaoyao Port doesn’t even have running water.
These port areas are obviously the most urbanized places at present and are the core of large industrial areas. If they are developed by themselves and gradually built by their own finances, their development will be greatly restricted.
If all of them are under the direct control of the central government, the financial assistance of the strong central government will be better developed, and unified management can effectively promote the linkage between the port areas and change the current practice of each big port area.
Zhu Jinglun’s unified management can better bring benefits to the infrastructure construction of port tax management, thus continuing to raise the level of government revenue. It is easy to say that Chen Zhiting and others even think that this is a good method, but I didn’t expect it because western countries have not done so before.
The new name for these ports is that the six ports directly under the jurisdiction of the six departments will be directly dispatched by the six departments, and the management level 7 is equivalent to the county order.
Section six hundred and seventy-six New Britain business agreement
Of course, this will cause dissatisfaction among local officials, because at present, these commercial ports are all important financial sources in various places, and the acquisition of six zhili provinces by the Ministry will obviously greatly affect the financial revenue of local governments. For example, once Kowloon Port is removed from Xin ‘an County, 90% of the fiscal revenue of Xin ‘an County will be lost? Fire ran Wen? ranen`
However, Zhu Jinglun’s idea is to support the development of the most advantageous port areas with funds, which is also a kind of accumulation, so as to promote urbanization at the fastest speed. After these port areas have become industrialized cities, they will drive the development of surrounding agricultural counties. This is the general trend of industrialization and urbanization
With Zhu Jinglun’s support, at present, the bureaucracy has formed a unified system from top to bottom, and the local government can’t resist the pressure and hand it over.
Zhu Jinglun believes that unifying the port management system during the economic crisis will continue to promote the development of these areas.
Zhu Jinglun, the emperor, will support the economic development during the economic crisis from the people’s level. Guangfu Bank is a good card in his hand, and more than 200 million yuan in the bank is the most powerful weapon.
The government continues to implement the government-level protection policy. The first is to raise taxes substantially.
It’s not just the big protection, Germany and the United States are more protectionist. The economic crisis in 173 made both countries strengthen trade protection measures, and the US tax was as high as 50%
German-French trade protectionism has made the 17-year British economic crisis have no effect on the two countries, which is equivalent to directly cutting off their ties with the world economy, at least with Britain. For the first time in history, the British economic situation has no effect on the two countries.
The biggest obstacle to trade protection is that the trade treaty signed by Britain and Britain in 166 has expired, and the two sides are renewing their contracts. The stalemate is because they want to raise the British cotton textile tax substantially.
However, in the end, the two pillar industries, cotton textile industry and shipping industry, have a special position in Britain. It is difficult for them to accept a large tax on British textiles, let alone a heavy tax.
Therefore, the negotiations broke down again and again until the treaty expired, and it was directly announced that British businesses would be taxed according to the general tariff, which was largely abolished with the British special tax treaty
The British immediately retaliated by imposing high taxes on big tea, raw silk and various handicrafts. As a result of the trade war, both countries suffered heavy losses, so they both felt it necessary to go back to the negotiating table for constructive discussions.
The importance of the British market to Britain is self-evident, but the big market can not be lost to Britain.
With the industrialization of Europe, especially after the development of China’s cotton textile industry, the position of the European market in Britain has been greatly reduced. From 16 years, the cotton cloth exported from Britain to India has been twice as much as the total cotton cloth exported to the European continent and the United States, and the export to China, Japan and Java has also exceeded the export to the European continent by 6%.
However, the big market accounts for half of the share of Britain’s imports into China. Taking high taxes to crowd out British textiles will cause great losses to the British cotton textile industry.
And Britain is the largest importer of big tea now, and the value of imported tea far exceeds the value of imported textiles. Their high tax on big tea has greatly affected big exports.
The total export volume of tea has reached more than 5 million tons, and the total export value hovers between 6 thousand and 10 million tons, while Britain accounts for half of it. The import of British textiles is only more than 20 million tons, and the surplus is close to 10 million tons.
On how to maintain the mutual tax trade with British tea and cotton is beneficial to most people, but the tax on British textile will greatly limit the development of cotton textile industry
In the future, it’s not that good and cheap, so you have to make a choice. It’s impossible to completely release British cotton spinning without protecting it. In the face of powerful British cotton spinning, the big cotton spinning industry is not competitive at all, but if we strengthen the protection of Britain and continue to crack down on the big tea policy, Indian tea will definitely develop, and in the end, the general will completely lose the monopoly position of tea.
After many discussions on the pros and cons, the big government departments reached an agreement that it is unfavorable not to protect the cotton textile industry, but it is not worth the loss if it is too protective to lose the tea market. Finally, they decided to compromise Britain and negotiate to define a lower tax for each other, suggesting that both sides should levy a 15% tax on each other.
This is three times higher than the 100-50 agreement tax of Manchu value, which can protect the textile industry to a certain extent. At the same time, the big government recognizes that the tax of 151% can make Indian tea profitable.
Because the university has established a huge tea garden, the mature machine-made tea industry and the packaging industry have a large number of tea brands with high market share. In the face of this overall advantage, it is impossible for Indian tea to seize the market share of big tea from scratch.
In view of the fact that the 15% tax rate in Britain is already a relatively low tax rate, it is not easy compared with continental Europe, so they accepted the big proposal and signed a new trade treaty between the two countries, stipulating that the maximum tax on each other’s businesses should not exceed 15%. This treaty is suitable for the Queen to rule all regions, including colonies such as India, Canada and Australia.